15 JUNE, 2020 - TRUTH OR LIES DAY
OK, today is the "truth or lies" episode...
If you review the past 112 days (3 months) of our COVID19 OREGON daily pages (who would do that?), and read about my attempts to qualify for the "Swami of Virus Prediction" award, and it's honorary golden turban...
You will recall (I am sure), that I set pandemic data "target-dates" (of 15-30 May, 15 June, 15 July, and 3 August), and predicted "what" (IMHO) the results would be, so, let's see how I did...
My first prediction was way back on 1 March, 2020 (on Day one of the Pandemic):
"1 March to 15-30 May, the graph climb-angle will stay constant and peak on around 15 May, at around 3,500 cases and 275 deaths, then, the graph levels will go to a horizontal plane around 30 May".
(On 15 May the actual was: 3,541 cases and 137 deaths)... but the graph did not level out, and things just continued upward at the same rate, so by (31 May there were 4185 cases and 153 deaths. I was wrong !)
My second prediction was for 15 June, "after running level since 15 May, the graph will begin to "turn" downward on 15 June from the sustained horizontal-run. But, look for June to be the absolute worst month for supplies and food shortages, frustration, bankruptcies, and violence."
On 10 May, a Highly unexpected phase one reopening by the Governor, allowed the Mothers Day and Memorial Day people explosions end with yesterday's (15 June 2020) 5636 cases and 176 deaths ... the graph never flattened, and has just continued to rise at the same rate and angle (it never turned "downward" as I had predicted, so, I was wrong again), it is unclear when the ramp will flatten.
My "third" prediction was for 15 July..." by early July the June slow down of cases will finally allow for "almost normalcy" but, some businesses will never reopen (having gone broke), the economy suffers and the financial losses create street riot activism from financial loss."
My "fourth" (3 August (birthday) prediction was: "by August 1-15 , ... it is now determined to be SAFE to begin fully socializing again (almost like before COVID)... with almost all surviving businesses being reopened, (until 15-30 November 2020 when the wave TWO COVID and flu seasons hit hard ! causing an alarming uptick in case numbers and back to the high cases per day rate. By April 2021 the impact of the new COVID vaccines (released in January 2021) will begin to diminish numbers until we see a June 2021 return to normalcy."
If you review the past 112 days (3 months) of our COVID19 OREGON daily pages (who would do that?), and read about my attempts to qualify for the "Swami of Virus Prediction" award, and it's honorary golden turban...
You will recall (I am sure), that I set pandemic data "target-dates" (of 15-30 May, 15 June, 15 July, and 3 August), and predicted "what" (IMHO) the results would be, so, let's see how I did...
My first prediction was way back on 1 March, 2020 (on Day one of the Pandemic):
"1 March to 15-30 May, the graph climb-angle will stay constant and peak on around 15 May, at around 3,500 cases and 275 deaths, then, the graph levels will go to a horizontal plane around 30 May".
(On 15 May the actual was: 3,541 cases and 137 deaths)... but the graph did not level out, and things just continued upward at the same rate, so by (31 May there were 4185 cases and 153 deaths. I was wrong !)
My second prediction was for 15 June, "after running level since 15 May, the graph will begin to "turn" downward on 15 June from the sustained horizontal-run. But, look for June to be the absolute worst month for supplies and food shortages, frustration, bankruptcies, and violence."
On 10 May, a Highly unexpected phase one reopening by the Governor, allowed the Mothers Day and Memorial Day people explosions end with yesterday's (15 June 2020) 5636 cases and 176 deaths ... the graph never flattened, and has just continued to rise at the same rate and angle (it never turned "downward" as I had predicted, so, I was wrong again), it is unclear when the ramp will flatten.
My "third" prediction was for 15 July..." by early July the June slow down of cases will finally allow for "almost normalcy" but, some businesses will never reopen (having gone broke), the economy suffers and the financial losses create street riot activism from financial loss."
My "fourth" (3 August (birthday) prediction was: "by August 1-15 , ... it is now determined to be SAFE to begin fully socializing again (almost like before COVID)... with almost all surviving businesses being reopened, (until 15-30 November 2020 when the wave TWO COVID and flu seasons hit hard ! causing an alarming uptick in case numbers and back to the high cases per day rate. By April 2021 the impact of the new COVID vaccines (released in January 2021) will begin to diminish numbers until we see a June 2021 return to normalcy."
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So, I guess I will miss the honors ceremony, my "flattened" or level-off" graph looks like this as of yesterday: (not flat), and shows no sign of slowing down, not boding well for the future months ahead, and I must wait for June 2021 until it is safe again.
"MY" Virus prediction career is over... nothing is as I said it would be... (it's far worse !) so, it is back to my sewing thread bobbin collecting, the museum dreams, and my acting career.
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I just proved that I cannot predict ... my remaining June through August 2020 and year-end predictions are totally wrong... and now embarassing (so, disregard them).
I missed on what a Governor would do (supposedly basing decisions and guidance on science and data), or how thousands would boycott the "stay-at-home' rules, and refuse to wear masks or distance themselves, I did not see the riots, protests, and assembly by the thousands (for days and weeks on end) ever happen, or see my expected throngs of people stop visiting sports arenas and stop going to, or packing back into restaurants and pubs, or disbelieve that there even "is" a virus !
Ten or so days from today and in the future months, this could be a far worse scenario... but, I am done predicting, I was an optimist, I am now a "watcher"...
SO, LET'S PARTY !! why, let's have a "viral party !"