15 JUNE, 2020 - TRUTH OR LIES DAY

OK, today is the "truth or lies" episode...


If you review the past 112 days (3 months) of our COVID19 OREGON daily pages (who would do that?), and read my attempts to qualify for the "Swami of Virus Prediction" award and it's honorary golden turban...  

You will recall (I am sure), that I set pandemic data "target-dates" (of 15-30 May, 15 June, 15 July, and 3 August), and predicted "what" (IMHO) the results would be, let's see how I did...

My first prediction was way back on 1 March, (Day one):
"1 March to 15-30 May, the graph climb-angle will stay constant and peak on 15 May, at around 3,500 cases and 275 deaths, then, the graph levels to a horizontal plane around 30 May". 

(On 15 May the actual was:  3,541 cases and 137 deaths)... but the graph did not level out, and just continued upward at the same rate, so by (31 May there were 4185 cases and 153 deaths.)

My second prediction was for 15 June, "after running level since 15 May, the graph begins to "turn" downward on 15 June from the sustained horizontal-run. But, look for June to be the absolute worst month for supplies and food shortages, frustration, bankruptcies, and violence."

On 10 May, the Highly unexpected phase one opening by the Governor, the Mothers Day and Memorial Day people explosions ended with yesterday's (15 June) 5636 cases and 176 deaths   ... the graph never flattened, and has just continued to rise at the same rate and angle (and, it never turned "downward" as I had predicted).

My "third" prediction was for 15 July..." by early July the June slow down of cases finally allows for "almost normalcy" but, some businesses will never reopen, the economy suffers and the financial losses create activism from financial loss."
                                   
My "fourth" 3 August (birthday) prediction was: "August 1-15 , ... it is new determined to be SAFE to begin fully socializing again (almost like before COVID)... with almost all surviving business reopened, (until 15-30 November when the wave two COVID and flu season hit hard !  causing an alarming uptick in case numbers and back to the 50-75 cases per day rate.   By April 2021 the impact of the new COVID vaccine (released in January) will begin to diminish numbers until a June 2021 return to normalcy."
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So, I guess I miss the honors ceremony, my "flattened" or level-off" graph looks like this as of yesterday:(not flat).


and, the last weeks 101, 158, 140, 177, 114, 146 new daily case record-breakers do not bode well with the yet to be seen results of protests-riots-unmasked throngs on our docks activities (which should start to be seen in the data in another 7-10 days from now).   "MY" Virus prediction career is over...  nothing is as I said it would be... (it's worse !) so, it is back to my sewing thread bobbin collecting and the museum dreams.

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I just proved that I cannot predict ... my remaining June through August and year-end predictions are totally wrong... and now embarassing (so, disregard them), I missed on what a Governor will do (basing decisions and guidance on science and data), or that thousands would boycott the "stay-at-home' rules, refuse to wear masks or distance themselves, I did no see the riots, protests, and assembly by thousands (days and weeks on end), or expect people to travel far from home to recreation spots and to protest sites for exposure, or pack back into restaurants and pubs, and disbelieve there even "is" a virus !  

Ten or so days from today this could be a far worse scenario... but, I am done predicting, I was an optimist, I am now a "watcher"... we are getting ready for the final phase of fully reopening Oregon (basing decisions and guidance on science and data), we now have people travelling out of their areas to political rallies, to more protests, and even the cruise lines and air traffic are all rebooking, making my 3 August prediction of getting back to a normal routine "right-on" ... just happening two full months earlier and without the Virus being gone.  (makes total sense doesn't it ?)

LET'S PARTY !!  why, let's have a "viral party !"