BIDEN'S OIL EMBARGO ON RUSSIA - 29 JANUARY, 2023

Russia’s Oil Exports Explode=== Despite Biden's Sanctions

Russia’s crude oil exports soared last week to the highest level since April 2022, suggesting that the country has fully overcome any of Biden's or Europe's sanctions, making the US oil shutdown laughable for the amount of Amercan income lost... not that we need any income from filthy oil or gas exports

Russian crude rose by 876,000 barrels a day, or 30%, to 3.8 million barrels in January, Baltic shipments were up by 626,000 barrels a day and the Black Sea and  Pacific ports also expanded.

The jump in the four-week average was boosted as a mid-December, weather-related surge in exports by sea to Europe, with deliveries to Germany being halted since the start of the year.

Inflows to the Kremlin’s war-chest from this crude export sales rose immensely, even in spite of a low January rate, shipped the previous week, the December rate, was more than two-and-a-half times as high ! 

The European Union’s import ban on Russia crude has led to much longer voyages for shipments, with journeys now taking an average of 31 days from Baltic ports to India, compared with just seven days from the same terminals to Rotterdam and about half that to Poland. That’s putting more pressure on the dwindling fleet of ships whose owners are willing to haul Russian cargoes.

The country is increasingly reliant on its own ships and a so-called “shadow fleet” of usually older ships owned by small, often unknown companies that have sprung up in recent months. European-owned tankers can still carry Russian crude, as long as it is sold at a price below a $60 a barrel cap, introduced at the same time as the import ban. playing with paperwork  and deferred payments cheats the system.

There has also been a huge resurgence in ship-to-ship transfers of oil cargo in the Mediterranean, with cargoes either being combined onto larger vessels or shifted from icebreaker capable tankers onto regular surface ships in order to free up those smaller breakers needed for winter  operations in the Baltic during the winter months... this games record keeping and control.

 Transfers have also been visible both off the Spanish coast and off the Greek coast areas,  before tankers head through the Suez Canal or around Africa to Asian ports. 

Tankers that  shuttle  Russia’s Sokol crude are waiting much longer than usual due to winter weather to transfer cargoes to other ships off the South Korean coast, reducing the number of cargoes they are able to redeliver each month.

Tankers hauling Russian crude are becoming secretive about their final destinations, especially for vessels carrying more than 29 million barrels of Russian crude (1.05 million barrels), all have left port showing no final destination .

Shipments to India-Asia soared, while those to around Europe have dried up almost completely.

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Kazakhstan has rebranded its oil cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies, and their transit crude is specifically exempted from any EU sanctions.

The volume of crude on vessels heading to China, India and Turkey, the three countries that emerged as the only significant buyers of displaced Russian supplies, and quantities on ships that are yet to show a final destination, jumped in the past month to average 2.84 million barrels a day... that’s up by 504,000 barrels a day from the period before Jan. 6, and the highestPreviously, the number had fallen four times in a row. 

With most of the ships yet to show destinations being likely to end up in India or China, the recent slump to Turkey has been particularly dramatic, Turkish imports from Russia, which rose to almost 400,000 barrels a day in September, slumped to just 47,000 barrels a day over the past four weeks, vessel-tracking data shows that as low as they were before Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine last February.

But four-week average shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, plus those on vessels showing no final destination, which typically end up in either India or China, jumped to a new high of 2.82 million barrels a day in the past four-week period.

While the volume heading to India appears to have slumped, history shows that most of the cargoes on ships initially showing no final destination end up there.

The equivalent of more than 560,000 barrels a day was on vessels showing destinations as either Port Said or Suez, or which have already been or are expected to be transferred from one ship to another off the South Korean port of Yeosu. Those voyages typically end at ports in India and show up in the chart below as “Unknown Asia” until a final destination becomes apparent.

“Unknown” volumes, running at 485,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 13, are those on tankers showing a destination of Gibraltar, Malta or no destination at all. Most of those cargoes go on to Asia, but some could end up in Turkey and an increasing number are being transferred from one vessel to another in the Mediterranean for onward journeys through the Suez Canal or on larger vessels around Africa.

Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries edged higher to 167,000 barrels a day in the 28 days to Jan. 13, with Bulgaria the sole European destination. These figures do not include shipments to Turkey.

A market that consumed more than 1.5 million barrels a day of short-haul crude, coming from export terminals in the Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic has been lost almost completely, to be replaced by long-haul destinations in Asia that are much more costly and time-consuming to serve.

No Russian crude was shipped to any northern European country in the past four weeks, so, according to Joe... the oil embargo works ! and is really hurting Russia, we have them in a strangle-hold... we dried up their income.  YAY!

Turkey was the only destination for Russian seaborne crude into the Mediterranean area, but flows there have fallen back to levels seen before Russian troops invaded Ukraine. Turkey was one of the NATO  countries that boosted imports after the war began and it is surprising to see flows falling back, as the country is not a party to the EU’s import ban and had been seen as a key market for the country’s crude after European buyers shunned Russian crude.

Flows to NATO Bulgaria, now Russia’s only Black Sea market for crude, regained the previous week’s loss, rising to 167,000 barrels a day. Bulgaria secured a partial exemption from the EU ban, which should support inflows now that the embargo has come into force.

But, flows of Russian crude rose by 876,000 barrels a day, or 30%, in the past seven days alone... jumping to their highest on a weekly basis since April. The biggest increases were seen in flows from the Baltic and Black Sea ports, with a smaller gain in Pacific exports, shipments from the Arctic ports were unchanged from the previous week.

Weekly inflow to the Kremlin’s war chest from its crude oil-export rose by $3 million, or 4%, to $61 million a week in the seven days prior to Jan. 13, 

A total of 35 tankers loaded 26.6 million barrels of Russian crude in the past week, vessel-tracking data and port agent reports show... that’s up by 6.1 million barrels, or 30%, from the previous week. 

The total volume on ships loading Russian crude from Baltic terminals jumped to its highest since September, increasing by 60% over the previous week. One cargo is heading to Cuba, while about one-third of the ships leaving the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are showing no clear destination.

Shipments from Novorossiysk in the Black Sea remained below 500,000 barrels a day for a fifth week.

Arctic shipments remained at the previous week’s two-month high, with three suezmax tankers leaving from Murmansk during the week, all cargoes were heading to Asia via the Suez Canal, these larger vessels have replaced the aframaxes that were previously used for deliveries from the floating storage units at the port.

Oil from the Russian Pacific ports rose to equal their highest level since at least the beginning of 2022, with 12 tankers loaded at the region’s three Russian terminals.

Shuttle tankers carrying Sokol crude are now often waiting much longer than they used to before transferring their cargoes to other vessels off the South Korean port of Yeosu, which may slow shipments of the grade. 

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SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) – China is set to receive at least two cargoes of Australian coal in early February, according to traders and ship tracking data, the first since an unofficial ban on imports that was put in place in 2020 was lifted earlier this month.

About 72,000 tonnes of metallurgical coal was loaded on to bulk vessel Magic Eclipse at Hay Point, Australia, on Jan. 23 and is expected to arrive at the southern Chinese city of Zhanjiang in Guangdong province next week, Refinitiv and Kpler shiptracking data showed.

Another bulk vessel, the BBC Maryland, is carrying about 12,000 tonnes of thermal coal from the Australian port of Newcastle and heading to the eastern Chinese city of Changshu, Kpler data showed. The cargo is scheduled to arrive on Feb. 10 but it is not immediately clear who the buyer was.

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The situation with Gas is even more comical, all of our natural, LPG gas customers, tankers,  and unloading-storage docks are now Russian money makers... nothing to see here, we're going solar !

All of which begs the question... if "I" can find this data, why can Joe Biden and Washington not find this?  these Russian oil sales are going to "our" customers that Joe cut off when he took office. it will all come very clear to you "when"...I finally get my "AMERIZUELA" 1850-today treatise done,